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North American FTTH FTTP Deployment Status

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Fiber-to-the-Home Council
North America
Presented by:
Michael C. Render
North American FTTH/FTTP Deployment Status
Market research objective:Market research objective:
High accuracyHigh accuracy
Vendor information
and interviews (nearly all)
Provider information and
detailed interviews (over 1/3)
Consumer input
(initial 100K panel)
Background:Background:
Broadband is growing.Broadband is growing.
Dial-up only
17%
Broadband
61%
No Internet
22%
Current Status Of U.S. Internet Use
RVALLC 2008
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Jan-03M
ay-03
Sep-03
Jan-04M
ay-04
Sep-04
Jan-05M
ay-05
Sep-05
Jan-06M
ay-06
Sep-06
Jan-07M
ay-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
Other
Other
Other
Other
RVA
FCC
..
Notes: Other market research sources from public releases. FCC data before 2005 includes small
business. Linear trends filled between data points.
U.S. Broadband Penetration Estimates
From Various Market Research Sources
RVALLC 2008
FTTH is growing.FTTH is growing.
(Fiber all the way to the living unit used for
services such as television, Internet,
telephone, security, and meter reading)
970,000
13,825,000
11,763,000
9,552,300
8,003,000
6,099,000
4,089,000
2,696,846
19,400 72,100 180,300
1,619,500
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
FTTH Homes Passed
(Cumulative – North America)
RVALLC 2007
Note: Over 98% in US
RVALLC 2008
FTTH Homes Marketed
(Cumulative – North America)
10,382,065
12,369,000
413,221
7,996,400
6,643,000
5,079,999
3,218,600
1,754,300
19,400 72,100 180,300 829,700
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
O
ct-08
RVALLC 2007
Note: Over 98% in US
RVALLC 2008
FTTH Homes Connected
(Cumulative – North America)
3,760,000
2,912,500
322,700
2,142,000
1,478,597
1,011,000
671,000
213,000
146,500
64,70022,5005,500
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
RVALLC 2007
Note: Over 98% in US
RVALLC 2008
FTTH Video Homes Connected
(Cumulative – North America)
1,641,000
2,195,000
110,000
1,054,000
611,400
408,800
260,900
101,40087,900
37,5009,6751,925
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
1,750,000
2,000,000
2,250,000
2,500,000
Sep-01M
ar-02Sep-02M
ar-03Sep-03M
ar-04Sep-04M
ar-05Sep-05M
ar-06Sep-06M
ar-07Sep-07M
ar-08Sep-08
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2008
Year-to-Year Growth In Homes Connected
(12 month averages)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Copper
Coax
Fiber
RVALLC 2008Note: Years since start of installations
North American FTTHNorth American FTTH
penetration is increasing.penetration is increasing.
FTTH Penetration
(Cumulative – United States)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Sep-01
M
ar-02
Sep-02
M
ar-03
Sep-03
M
ar-04
Sep-04
M
ar-05
Sep-05
M
ar-06
Sep-06
M
ar-07
Sep-07
M
ar-08
Sep-08
Passed
Connected
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2008
US GLOBAL RANK
-2nd in actual number of true
FTTH connections
-Approximately 4th in true FTTH
penetration
-Approximately 8th in fiber to the
building penetration
North American FTTH
penetration is not evenly
distributed.
- Most US FTTH growth (over 7% connected) is in area
covered by Verizon and independent ILECs
(approximately one third of the US)
- Canadian, Mexican, and Caribbean growth has been
slow, but is beginning to accelerate
FTTH takeFTTH take--rates are growing.rates are growing.
Overall Take-Rate For FTTH
(Cumulative – North America)
28.8%
30.4%
26.8%
22.3%
19.9%20.8%
35.4%
18.4%
26.0%
41.3%
35.9%
29.0%
31.2%
34.5%
28.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Sep-01
M
ar-02
Sep-02
M
ar-03
Sep-03
M
ar-04
Sep-04
M
ar-05
Sep-05
M
ar-06
Sep-06
M
ar-07
Sep-07
M
ar-08
Sep-08
RVALLC 2007
Notes: Percent of all homes-marketed taking something over fiber. Take-rates dropped for a time as
Verizon built infrastructure much faster than homes were connected.
RVALLC 2008
Take-Rates Vary By Provider Type
• CLEC in competitive area – about 29%
• RBOC in competitive area – about 35%
• Small / mid size municipality (retail) – about 54%
• CLEC in underserved area – about 55%
• Rural ILEC – about 58%
• Development – about 80%
FTTH Myth BustersFTTH Myth Busters
““We will never, in our lifetime,We will never, in our lifetime,
use 7 Mbps to the home. That is like connecting a wateruse 7 Mbps to the home. That is like connecting a water
main to every home.main to every home.””
(Circa 2002)(Circa 2002)
““FTTH is a poor investment. There is nothing FTTH can doFTTH is a poor investment. There is nothing FTTH can do
that DSL or cable modem canthat DSL or cable modem can’’t do.t do.””
(Circa 2004)(Circa 2004)
““There is nothing FTTH can do that FTTN canThere is nothing FTTH can do that FTTN can’’t do.t do.””
(Circa 2006)(Circa 2006)
FTTH Median Tested Download Internet Speed
(Mpbs)
7.0
5.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10M
ar-06
M
ar-07
M
ar-08
M
ar-09
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2008(All Broadband was 1.9Mbps in June 2007 per CWA using a non scientific sample)
1.69
1.24
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
2007
2008
Average Number Of HD And
DVR Devices In FTTH Homes
RVALLC 2008
30%
60%
66%
86%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
FTTH
Cable Modem*
DSL*
Dial-up*
Internet Customer Satisfaction
Comparison With Other Services
(Those somewhat or very satisfied)
RVALLC 2008* From 2006 data
3%
7%
21%
26%
32%
43%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
High definition television
Video-on-demand services
Full length movie downloads
Online gaming
Home business assisted by
FTTH*
Two-way video conferencing
Selected Advanced Customer Uses Of FTTH
RVALLC 2008
* Home businesses more efficient or only possible with FTTH
20%
21%
24%
27%
29%
35%
41%
43%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Viewing advanced websites with
full screen video pages
Switching between TV, Internet,
and phone with one device
Monitoring home or pets via
video while away
Work from home with more
speed/video conferencing, etc.
Making two-way "video calls"
(high quality picture)
Advanced online shopping
(enhanced viewing, etc.)
Advanced online college
opportunities (lecture on demand,
etc.)
Online face-to-face visits with
doctors and nurses
Percent Believing Future Non Entertainment
FTTH Applications Are Important
Among Those Under 35
RVALLC 2008
17%
19%
20%
21%
23%
27%
29%
32%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Online face-to-face visits with doctors
and nurses
Switching between TV, Internet, and
phone with one device
Viewing advanced websites with full
screen video pages
Monitoring home or pets via video
while away
Making two-way "video calls" (high
quality picture)
Advanced online shopping (enhanced
viewing, etc.)
Work from home with more
speed/video conferencing, etc.
Advanced online college opportunities
(lecture on demand, etc.)
Percent Believing Future Non Entertainment
FTTH Applications Are Important
Among Those 55 And Over
RVALLC 2008
Examples Of Life Changing FTTH
Applications Simply Not Possible With Any
Other Infrastructure
• Teachers utilizing two-way video conferencing from home to
teach Korean students English (in off hours, i.e. time difference)
(Powell, Wyoming)
• Scientist working as a NASA consultant from a rural location
(Washington state)
• Elementary student requiring isolation for a rare skin disease
being able to participate in local class work via two-way video.
(Salem, IL)
More Myth BustersMore Myth Busters
““The business case is limited. It will never work forThe business case is limited. It will never work for
overbuilds.overbuilds.””
““The business case is limited. It will never work for ruralThe business case is limited. It will never work for rural
areas.areas.””
““The business case is limited. It will never work in U.S.The business case is limited. It will never work in U.S.
multimulti--tenant buildings.tenant buildings.””
““The business case is limited. It will never work for a thirdThe business case is limited. It will never work for a third
competitor.competitor.””
North American FTTHNorth American FTTH……
The Future looks brightThe Future looks bright
Fiber-to-the-Home Council
North America
Presented by:
Michael C. Render
North American FTTH/FTTP Deployment Status