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Why LTE?

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Why LTE?
Knut Erik Walter, Head of Network Technology Strategies,
Group Business Development and Research
WBC 08 September 2009, Paris France
Outline
• Who is the Telenor Group
• Mobile Broadband, the
product and business case
• Selecting the optimum
technology
2
technology
• The role of LTE
• Summary/conclusion
Telenor Group
Basic facts
• Our business is
telecommunications
• Among the world’s largest mobile
operators with 164 million mobile
subscriptions
• Strong footprint in Central Eastern
Europe and Asia
3
Europe and Asia
• Leading Nordic position in mobile,
broadband and TV services.
• Total workforce: 40 000 man-years
(30 000 outside Norway)*
• Listed on Oslo Stock Exchange
*Figures including Kyivstar
Telenor, Norway 100%
3 million subscribers
Sonofon, Denmark 100%
1.8 million subscribers
Telenor, Pakistan 100%
19 million subscribers
Grameenphone,
ASIAN REGION
65.7 million subscribers
NORDIC REGION
6.7 million subscribers
Telenor Group Mobile world
4
1.8 million subscribers
Telenor, Sweden 100%
1.9 million subscribers
Kyivstar, Ukraine 56.5%
23.5 million subscribers
VimpelCom, Russia* 33.6%
61 million subscribers
Bangladesh 62%
21 million subscribers
DiGi, Malaysia 49%
7 million subscribers
dtac, Thailand 65.5%*
18.7 million subscribers
*economic exposure
CEE REGION without Russia*
30 million subscribers
Pannon, Hungary 100%
3.7 million subscribers
Telenor, Serbia 100%
2.8 million subscribers
Promonte, Montenegro 100%
0.4 million subscribers
*Financial statement for VimpleCom as of the Group’s balance sheet date is not available.
Figures presented according to telecom analysts
We experience significant growth in all
markets where MBB is launched
Launch of mobile broadband:
• Pannon: April 2007
• Sweden: June 2007
Mobile Broadband - accumulated numbers of subscribers all
OpCos. 2007-2009
5
• Sweden: June 2007
• Norway: Nov. 2007
• Promonte: Dec. 2007 (pilot)
• Sonofon: Jan. 2008
• Serbia: July 2008
Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09
Sweden Norway Sonofon Denmark
Pannon Hungary Promonte Montenegro Telenor Serbia
The two flavours of mobile broadband data:
Large screen:
Internet access from PC/laptop:
• Residential (private)
• Nomadic (private and business)
Inbuilt or USB-connected Modem
Advanced mobility features less
Small screen:
Smartphone with mobile Internet
• Anywhere, Anytime
• Private and business
All-in-one gadget, but still a phone
Strong requirements on mobility, speech
6
Advanced mobility features less
important
Competition factors:
- Coverage
- Price
- Performance
Strong requirements on mobility, speech
quality in addition to the data
connection
Competition factors:
- Coverage
- Price
- Functionality and services
- Performance
MBB is a success for the users…
• Accelerating uptake and usage show that the customers wants
the service
• “Hunger for speed and capacity” follow a similar path as for
fixed broadband
+ =+
7
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109
Evolution of ADSL volume in Norway Evolution of Mobile data volume in Norway
+ =+
- But the business case is a challenge for the
operators
• Average large screen users creates 10x more traffic than a
small screen user
• Majority of usage is residential or nomadic, direct competition
with fixed broadband and open WiFi zones
• Users are very conscious on data speed
• Price is the main competition parameter
8
• Price is the main competition parameter
• Acceptable market prices are decoupled from traffic volume
• Revenues must be secured!
Main points to improve profitability
•Market attractive products addressed to key segments
Attract entry and mass market as well as business market
•Ensure some kind of fair usage policies and enforcement
Managing the extreme users, maintaining quality for the
business users
•Stimulate off-peak use
9
•Build coverage based on demand
•Adapt the capacity investment to the real needs
Telenor mobile operations cover a wide range
of markets.
Large differences in terms of maturity of mobile broadband:
“Mature”:
High average income
Large spectrum
resources
“On the way”:
Medium average income
Medium spectrum
resources
“Initial”:
Low or lower medium
average income
Limited spectrum
10
resources
Internet penetration
>60%
MBB in widespread use
Mobile data volume
larger than voice
Deployed technologies:
GSM/EDGE +
widespread UMTS/HSPA
resources
Internet penetration 20-
60 %
MBB launched
Mobile data volume
approaching voice
Deployed technologies:
GSM/EDGE +
UMTS/HSPA
Limited spectrum
resources
Low internet penetration
(<20%)
No specific MBB offer
Mobile data volume very
low
Deployed technologies:
GSM/EDGE
The target for network evolution
•Towards a cost-effective network
supporting all kind of services
•Access-agnostic core network,
various access types
– Tradeoff: Maximum performance
under various conditions and limited
IP Transport
PS-core
IMS
SDP
ApplicationApplicationApplication
Transport
Control
Services/Enablers Business
Support
Network
Mgmt
IP Transport
PS-core
IMS
SDP
ApplicationApplicationApplication
Transport
Control
Services/Enablers Business
Support
Network
Mgmt
11
under various conditions and limited
number of different technologies
•Any point in time: A mixture of
“legacy” and new technologies,
– Compatibility and multi-standard user
equipment are important
2G 3G/HSPA WIMAXWLAN xDSL
Access LTE2G 3G/HSPA WIMAXWLAN xDSL
Access LTE
Selected solution depends on
many drivers
Available spectrum and bandwidth
Outlook for future spectrum
Regulation policies
Existing infrastructure (towers, sites,
cables, fibre…)
Timing
12
Timing
Competition
Coverage requirements
Demography
Services and data rate to be offered
LTELong term
solution
LTE offers unique flexibility
• Supports different channel bandwidths 1.4 –
20 MHz.
• Easier to put LTE than HSPA into parts of the
GSM900 band
• Specified for all relevant bands globally
• User data rate can be directly tuned to current
13
• User data rate can be directly tuned to current
signal conditions and to customer needs.
• Self-organizing functions reduces the planning
and deployment cost
LTE will give superior performance
LTE provides more cost-efficient mobile data than HSPA
• Higher data rates and cell capacity for same cost
• Based on next generation flat, All-IP core network
• Very scalable in terms of investments in radio and core
network: Pay as you grow.
14
LTE will offer superior user experience and capacity
• Improved efficiency (bit/Hz/km2), peak rate and
latency
• Further development through “LTE Advanced”
Mobile WiMAX has no real advantages
compared to LTE
Technical specifications are very similar, the minor differences give no
clear advantage in any direction.
– No significant difference in expected performance
Trend towards technology-neutral licensing and WiMAX accepted as IMT-
technology:
– No unique WiMAX spectrum not accessible through LTE
15
The head start of WiMAX is not relevant for most 3GPP based operators
– HSPA is sufficient until LTE is available
– Establishing a complementary stand-alone system is not a cost-effective
solution
Exception:
– Local licensing regime may still make WiMAX more favourable than 3G/LTE
LTE will have the most vital ecosystem
• Supported by all major vendors of infrastructure and
terminals/devices
• Clear development path both from 3GPP and 3GPP2, hence
providing an unprecedented support of operators
• WiMAX may get sufficient support to survive as an alternative,
but more attractive for start-ups than for an existing 3GPP
16
but more attractive for start-ups than for an existing 3GPP
operator
LTE is the solution best prepared to offer the performance
and cost levels expected by customers in the future.
Returning to the three categories of Telenor
markets:
“Mature”:
LTE ready!
“On the way”:
More HSPA!
Technology
advancement
17
All move in the same direction, but definitely not at the same pace!
More HSPA!
“Initial markets”:
Spectrum needed! Time
We are preparing for the LTE era
• 2,6 GHz band nation-wide licenses in
Norway and Sweden secured in 2008.
• Technical testing of the performance and
capabilities together with vendors in 2009
• Rollout and launch starting in 2010
18
Motivation:
– Having the right competence in the
organisation is crucial
– Knowledge and early experience on LTE is
urgent, also for further decisions on HSPA
investments
Why rolling out LTE that early?
Extreme traffic growth in Sweden, capacity investments needed
– LTE will offload MBB in 3G/HSPA, enables more 3G voice telephony
Market expectations are high:
– Competition on performance, both real and perceived
– LTE will be closer to fixed BB in performance, Telenor has a weak
position on fixed in Sweden
Current cost structure is not sustainable
19
– Expectation on further reductions with LTE
Early uptake will be dominated by large screen MBB (PCs), inherent
voice solution is not required from day one.
Conclusion
LTE is the most important radio technology in the coming decade
Early knowledge and experience is vital for Telenor to ensure:
– Competitive user experience
20
– Competitive user experience
– Cost-optimal infrastructure
Our challenge: To select the correct set of technologies and
functionalities across very different markets